Running head: PREPHONOLOGICAL SPELLINGS AS PREDICTORS OF SUCCESS Frequency Analyses of Prephonological Spellings as Predictors of Success in Conventional Spelling

The present study explored how children’s prephonological writing foretells differential learning outcomes in primary school. We asked Portuguese-speaking preschool children in Brazil (mean age 4 1/4 years) to spell 12 words. Monte Carlo tests were used to identify the 31 children whose writing was not based on spellings or sounds of the target words. 2 1/2 years later, the children took a standardized spelling test. The more closely the digram (2-letter sequence) frequencies in the preschool task correlated with those in children’s books, the better scores the children had in primary school; and the more preschoolers used letters from their own name, the lower their subsequent scores. Thus, preschoolers whose prephonological writing revealed attentiveness to the statistical properties of text subsequently performed better in conventional spelling. These analytic techniques may, therefore, help in the early identification of children at risk for spelling difficulties.